The Certainty Fallacy
Uncertainty defines our world. Business decisions. Life choices. We constantly navigate unpredictable terrain.
Our instinct? Reach for certainty. Build detailed plans. Account for every variable.
The problem? Plans create the illusion of control.
CNN+ (2022): Warner Bros. Discovery spent $300 million on detailed launch plans and content strategy. Shut down after 30 days when subscriber numbers failed to meet projections.
The truth? Absolute certainty doesn't exist. Every situation has unknowns. We favour the knowns because they feel comfortable.
Strategic planning isn't control. It's a bet.
Every plan is built on assumptions. Market conditions. Customer behaviour. Competitor moves. Internal capability.
Most organisations treat planning like certainty. They present polished decks. Get board approval. Feel confident.
However, assumptions only become facts when they are tested.
Without feedback loops - internal and external - you're flying blind. You won't know when reality diverges from your plan until it's too late.
The risk isn't in making assumptions. It's in not building systems to challenge them.
Plans give false comfort. They look rigorous. They feel strategic. But untested assumptions can unravel faster than you built them.
Leaders fall for this constantly. History is full of detailed strategies that either never launched or collapsed because the analysis had glaring gaps.
The difference between a good strategy and an expensive PowerPoint?
Knowing when you're wrong. And moving fast when you are. So how do you build that adaptability into your strategy?
Process vs. Outcome: Choosing Your Path Through Uncertainty
When facing uncertainty, you can only control one thing: the process or the outcome. Anyone promising both is selling fantasy.
This isn't about following a recipe. This is about bringing something new into the world - ambitious work that makes your heart race.
You need either a destination or a map. Having neither leaves you wandering. Having both creates false confidence.
Success hinges on knowing when to stand firm and when to adapt.
The Outcome Path
Committing to a specific outcome demands willpower and resilience.
Actors and entrepreneurs white-knuckle their way to success over the years. They start with someone else's playbook but rewrite it as reality shifts. Markets change. Technology evolves. Audiences want different things.
Holding fast to an outcome requires flexibility somewhere: time, cost, or quality. You'll hit moments where you must choose which one bends.
Tesla's Model 3 production:
Target: 5,000 cars weekly by December 2017.
Reality: Production stalled.
Response: Pushed deadline to mid-2018. Set up temporary production outside the factory.
Result: Eventually exceeded goals by adjusting timeline while maintaining quality.
The Process Path
Embracing the process requires trust. It's liberating and uncomfortable.
Outside the creative industries, we're conditioned to set concrete goals: five-year plans, annual targets, and quarterly benchmarks. Process-driven work says: let's discover what emerges.
This is Design Thinking applied broadly. When done well, results consistently exceed expectations. Often 10x better than imagined.
Airbnb's turnaround:
Problem: Slow growth. Low bookings.
Process: Founders put themselves in users' shoes.
Discovery: Low-quality photos deterred bookings.
Action: Hired professional photographers. Redesigned listings.
Result: Revenue doubled. Mindset shifted from scaling to empathising.
Making Your Choice
The choice depends on your situation and your capacity to adapt as circumstances evolve.
Use the Cynefin Framework as a guide:
Trust the process when:
You're in uncharted territory - Because you don't know what good looks like yet. Predefined outcomes would be guesses, not goals.
Launching new product categories - Because customer needs and market responses are unknown. You need room to discover what works.
Navigating culture change - Because human behaviour is complex and unpredictable. Forcing specific outcomes creates resistance.
Focus on outcomes when:
You're in familiar waters - Because proven methods exist. You can reliably predict what produces results.
You have evident expertise - because experience shows you the way. The unknowns are minimal.
The path is known (like engineering projects) - Because physics and math don't change (too often). Outcomes are calculable when variables are controlled.
Mastery comes from knowing when to switch between approaches.
Sometimes you need unwavering focus on an outcome to push through barriers. Other times, you need process flexibility to uncover unexpected solutions.
Start this week: Choose one low-stakes project where you focus on process, not outcome. A team meeting format. A client approach. Observe what emerges.
Companies That Embraced Adaptability
These companies shifted from rigid outcome-focused to process-driven discovery:
Amazon
Started selling books. Continuously adapted to expand into the marketplace, AWS, and logistics.
Result: Dominated e-commerce and cloud services.
Netflix
Shifted from DVD rentals to streaming by observing user preferences. Then pivoted to original content.
Result: Global streaming dominance.
IBM
Transitioned from hardware to software and cloud-based AI, emphasising iterative innovation.
Result: Repositioned as technology leader in high-value IT services.
Walmart
Evolved from traditional retail to e-commerce and digital supply chain. Tested and scaled digital initiatives.
Result: Retained market leadership by integrating physical and online retail.
Common themes:
Shifted from fixed long-term goals to adaptable discovery
Embraced iterative feedback and user research
Achieved exponential improvements through emergent opportunities
Built organisational trust to let innovation shape outcomes
Why We Buy Into Certainty
Certainty sells. We crave it. Consultants and gurus are happy to provide it.
But behind every success story lies countless adjustments and pivots that never make it into the case study.
Don't get dazzled by polished presentations. Focus on identifying which path aligns with your needs. Find partners who embrace uncertainty as a fundamental truth.
From Over-Planning to Strategic Adaptability: A Practical Guide
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Scenario Planning with Flexibility Triggers
Identify the key external and internal uncertainties that influence your business. Develop multiple plausible scenarios (best case, worst case, most likely, and variants). Define clear triggers or “what-ifs” (e.g., market shifts, regulatory changes, resource availability) that signal when to activate specific contingency plans. This ensures flexibility as we prepare for diverse futures.
Building Adaptation Checkpoints into Quarterly Reviews
Incorporate formal checkpoints in regular review cycles where the team evaluates progress and external changes. Use these moments to adjust strategy, reallocate resources, or pivot based on new information. These checkpoints guard against rigidity and embed adaptability into routine governance.
Creating Decision Frameworks That Don’t Require Perfect Information
Develop frameworks prioritising “good-enough” evidence and rapid decision-making over waiting for perfect data. Assign risk tolerances, define which decisions can be revisited, and empower teams to act promptly and adapt accordingly. This accelerates responsiveness in uncertain environments.
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How to Sell Adaptability to Boards and Investors
Frame adaptability as a risk management and growth assurance strategy. Present scenarios showing how fixed plans increase vulnerability and how adaptable strategies safeguard investments. Highlight real-world business transformation stories to build confidence in process-driven approaches.
Managing Team Anxiety When Plans Change
Acknowledge uncertainty openly; provide psychological safety by communicating that changing course is expected and valued. Use transparent messaging and involve teams in scenario planning to create ownership of adaptive pathways. Offer training on resilient mindsets and iterative work.
Communication Strategies for Uncertain Environments
Use clear, transparent, and frequent communication, emphasising progress and learning rather than fixed targets. Frame setbacks as valuable insights and reinforce shared purpose. Combine top-down messaging with bottom-up feedback loops to align and engage stakeholders effectively.
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This week: Choose one low-stakes project where you commit to focusing on the process, not the outcome. Examples:
Redesigning a weekly team meeting format
Exploring a new client approach
Testing a different content creation method
Set time boundaries (2-4 weeks) and allocate resources. Avoid predetermining success metrics; instead, observe what emerges.
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Daily Practice: When facing decisions, ask, “Am I trying to control the process or the outcome?” Notice discomfort when controlling both is impossible.
Weekly Reflection: Identify when embracing uncertainty led to better-than-expected results.
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In meetings: Reserve ~15% of project timelines for “discovery and iteration” rather than filling every minute with predetermined tasks.
With stakeholders: Present options. “We can guarantee the process/timeline or guarantee the outcome, but not both. Which matters more?”.
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Use the Cynefin framework test:
Have we solved this exact problem with proven methods? If yes, focus on outcomes.
If not, trust the process and adaptability.
Define triggers that signal when to switch from a process focus to an outcome focus and vice versa.
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Find allies frustrated with rigid methods and propose small experiments together.
Demonstrate value through results before explaining the theory.
Emphasise conscious allocation of certainty, not abandonment of planning.
The Uncomfortable Truth
Most leaders won't embrace this.
They'll keep building detailed plans. They'll continue to present certainty to boards. They'll continue to pretend they can predict the unpredictable.
Because admitting you don't know is career suicide. Or so they think.
But the best leaders already know this secret. They plan enough to move forward. They build feedback loops to learn fast. They pivot when reality proves them wrong.
They don't mistake the plan for the future.
The question isn't whether you'll face uncertainty. You will.
The question is: will you pretend you can control it, or will you build systems to navigate it?
One path leads to expensive PowerPoints and surprised faces when things fall apart.
The other leads to resilience, adaptation, and actual results.
Your choice.
Originally published on LinkedIn, 1 May 2024 (updated for this blog)
MEET ROSE, STRATEGY CONSULTANT
Ready to embrace productive uncertainty?
I help leaders decide when to focus on outcomes and when to trust the process. Let's have a practical conversation about your strategic priorities.
